Projection: Georgia Tech most likely to finish 7-5

ATLANTA, GA - OCTOBER 17:  Nathan Peterman #4 of the Pittsburgh Panthers is pressured by KeShun Freeman #42 of the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Bobby Dodd Stadium on October 17, 2015 in Atlanta, Georgia.  (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Georgia Tech has a 46.3 percent chance of beating Pittsburgh Oct. 8 in Pittsburgh, according to one projection. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Georgia Tech is most likely to finish 7-5 and has a 70 percent chance of finishing somewhere between 8-4 and 6-6, according to one projection.

The forecast is based on Fremeau Efficiency Index, a rating system based on opponent-adjusted drive efficiency. The FEI metrics forecast a 23 percent chance of finishing 8-4, a 27 percent chance of going 7-5 and a 20 percent chance of finishing at 6-6.

The full forecast was in a tweet from Fremeau on Wednesday.

Other pearls from Fremeau’s bcftoys.com website:

Tech’s strength of schedule is ranked 27th in the country.

Among Tech’s games against FBS opponents, its most likely win is Vanderbilt (86.4 percent) and its least likely victory is Georgia (16.0 percent).

The schedule:

Team Probability
Boston College .655
Vanderbilt .864
Clemson .187
Miami .722
Pittsburgh .463
Georgia Southern .727
Duke .734
North Carolina .389
Virginia Tech .382
Virginia .813
Georgia .160

If the Jackets were to win the games it had a better than 50/50 probability, they would finish 6-6.

Fremeau said that returning productivity is taken into account into the forecasts, but coaching changes are not. Further, Tech’s past two seasons speak directly to the fact that what actually happens in games doesn’t  always follow the most probable projections.

In the end, it’s a projection no different than the preseason AP poll, albeit one with biases fully removed and perhaps more weight given to strength of schedule.

What do you think?

 

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Reader Comments 0

19 comments
@eidsonb
@eidsonb

Time for the Anti-CPJ folks to start their nonsense again I suppose.  The man is our coach and will be our coach for as long as he wants.  All the while his successor is winning at Kennesaw State. 

Steve Buckner
Steve Buckner

Until we get rid of Johnson it will always be 7-5 or 6-6~

Andrew Wilkes
Andrew Wilkes

I'm tired of the fan base being content with mediocrity. It's time for a change.

Sam McVey
Sam McVey

Can we just sit this season out???

Louis Morris
Louis Morris

Miami Hurricane's ...splacking something.. on the field...

Seth Ellerbee
Seth Ellerbee

as long as we beat uga and clemson i dont care

Steve Spiegel
Steve Spiegel

Execute well, shorten the field and avoid getting manhandled and we can beat BC.